Is There a “Housing Bubble” in Canada?

Katherine Martin • July 4, 2016

Since at least 2008, there have been repeated bursts of commentary that there is a housing bubble in Canada. Those comments have generally assumed that rapid growth in house prices (or a rising ratio of house prices versus incomes or of house prices versus rents) is sufficient evidence of a bubble. To the contrary, these supposedly strong indicators are not definitive proof. They may actually represent healthy outcomes within existing conditions.

Proof of a bubble requires two findings:

  1. There are expectations of price growth that are self-fulfilling – that the expectations of growth lead to increased (and excessive) activity in the market, which drives the price growth
  2. Prices diverge significantly from what should be expected based on economic fundamentals

On the first condition, the author’s statistical research into Canadian housing markets suggests that growth of house prices has very little influence on market activity and, therefore, there is no evidence of a “speculative mindset”. There is evidence of a moderate effect in British Columbia, but even in BC the effect is nowhere near as strong as occurred in the US during its bubble period.

On the second condition, the critical economic fundamental is that very low interest rates have created “affordability space” in which house prices could rise. The amounts of actual increase in local markets have varied, depending on local conditions. The key finding here is that, in the 11 major market areas that are included in the Teranet/National Bank House Price Index, none have fully consumed the affordability space that has resulted from low interest rates. As such, we can conclude that the rapid rises of housing prices are consistent with economic fundamentals.

Another way to interpret the data (which is hopefully clearly evident in the charts shown in this section) is that housing affordability is currently very favourable almost everywhere in Canada. This is resulting in strong housing activity and supporting the broader economy. This support is increasingly valuable, given that investment in energy projects is no longer a driver of growth.

This report concludes that housing bubbles do not exist in Canada.

These findings explain why the countless predictions of doom have not been proven correct. That said, the economic fundamentals can change. In particular, a non-trivial and sustained rise in mortgage interest rates (or a sharp economic downturn) could put current prices offside and lead to price reductions.

There is risk in the policy arena. Changes in mortgage lender or insurer policies that reduce access to mortgages would result in a significant change in fundamental conditions, leading to an unnecessary drop in housing demand and housing prices, causing consequent economic damage.

Assessment of risks in the housing and mortgage markets should give considerable attention to the outlooks for interest rates and the employment situation. Someone who holds strong expectations about adverse changes for the fundamentals could see very substantial risks. On the other hand, someone who does not expect adverse changes for the fundamentals should see limited risks in the housing and mortgage markets.

 

This article was taken from the report Looking for balance in the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Markets  published by Mortgage Professionals Canada in June of 2016, written by Chief economist Will Dunning. 

Katherine Martin


Origin Mortgages

Phone: 1-604-454-0843
Email: kmartin@planmymortgage.ca
Fax: 1-604-454-0842


RECENT POSTS

Stress-Testing Your Mortgage Affordability: Why It Matters

By Katherine Martin • February 18, 2026
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you’ll ever make. That’s why lenders want to be sure you can handle your mortgage payments—not just today, but also if interest rates rise in the future. This is where the mortgage stress test comes in. Many Canadians hear the term but aren’t entirely sure what it means or how it affects them. Let’s break it down in plain language. What Is the Mortgage Stress Test? The stress test is a rule introduced by the federal government that requires all mortgage applicants to qualify at a higher rate than the one they’ll actually pay. Currently, you must qualify at the greater of your contract rate + 2% or the benchmark qualifying rate (set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). For example: If your lender offers you a 5-year fixed mortgage at 5.25%, you must show you could still afford the payments at 7.25% . Even if rates don’t rise that high, the stress test ensures you won’t be overextended if they do. Why Does It Matter? The stress test protects both borrowers and lenders by: Preventing over-borrowing : It ensures you don’t take on more debt than you can realistically handle. Preparing for rate hikes : With interest rates fluctuating, it’s a safeguard against sudden increases. Strengthening financial stability : It lowers the risk of defaults, protecting the housing market as a whole. While it can sometimes feel like a barrier—reducing the amount you qualify for—it’s ultimately designed to keep you from becoming “house poor.” How Does It Impact Buyers? The stress test can significantly affect your homebuying budget. For example, without it, you might qualify for a $600,000 mortgage, but with the stress test applied, you may only qualify for $500,000. That doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach—it just means you may need to adjust expectations or explore other strategies, such as: Increasing your down payment Paying down existing debts Considering alternative lenders who may have different qualification standards Why Work With a Mortgage Professional? Every lender applies the stress test, but not every lender views your application the same way. An independent mortgage professional can: Shop multiple lenders to find the best fit Run affordability scenarios at different rates Help you understand how much house you can truly afford—without stretching your finances too thin The Bottom Line The mortgage stress test isn’t meant to stop you from buying a home—it’s there to protect you from financial strain down the road. By understanding how it works and planning ahead, you can make smarter choices and buy with confidence. If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, refinancing, or simply want to know how the stress test affects your options, connect with us today. We’ll help you stress-test your budget and find the mortgage solution that works best for you.

What to Expect in the Closing Process: A Step-by-Step Guide

By Katherine Martin • February 11, 2026
You’ve found the right home, your offer’s been accepted, and your financing is approved—congratulations! But before you can pick up the keys and celebrate, there’s one more important stage: the closing process. Closing is the final step in your homebuying journey, where all the paperwork, legal details, and financial transactions come together. It can feel overwhelming if you don’t know what to expect, but with the right preparation, closing can be smooth and stress-free. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you understand the process. Step 1: Hire a Lawyer or Notary A real estate lawyer (or notary, depending on your province) handles the legal side of closing. They will: Review the purchase agreement and mortgage documents Conduct a title search to confirm the seller has the legal right to sell the property Ensure the mortgage lender is properly registered on the title Handle the transfer of funds between you, the lender, and the seller Your lawyer or notary will be your main point of contact during closing, so choose one you trust and who communicates clearly. Step 2: Finalize Your Mortgage Your lender will send the mortgage instructions directly to your lawyer or notary. At this stage: You’ll provide proof of property insurance (lenders require this before releasing funds) You’ll confirm your down payment and closing costs are available in your lawyer’s trust account The lawyer will prepare all documents for your review and signature Step 3: Pay Closing Costs Closing costs typically range from 1.5% to 4% of the purchase price. These can include: Legal fees Title insurance Land transfer tax (where applicable) Adjustments for property taxes or utilities prepaid by the seller Home inspection or appraisal fees (if not already paid) Your lawyer will provide a final statement of adjustments so you know exactly how much is due on closing day. Step 4: Sign the Paperwork A few days before closing, you’ll meet with your lawyer or notary to sign all the necessary documents, including: Mortgage agreement Title transfer Insurance confirmations Statement of adjustments Bring valid government-issued ID to this appointment. Step 5: Transfer of Funds On the day of closing: Your lender sends the mortgage funds to your lawyer Your lawyer combines these funds with your down payment and pays the seller Legal ownership of the property is transferred into your name The lender is registered on title as a secured creditor Step 6: Get the Keys! Once the paperwork is filed and the funds have cleared, your lawyer will confirm that the transaction is complete. You’ll then get the keys to your new home—officially making it yours. The Bottom Line The closing process is a series of important steps, but with the right team in place, it doesn’t have to be stressful. By working closely with your mortgage professional and lawyer, you’ll have guidance every step of the way—from signing the documents to turning the key in the front door. If you’d like help preparing for the closing process—or want a clear breakdown of your own closing costs— connect with us today.
© 2026 

Katherine Martin. All Rights Reserved.